Wealthsimple Predict
Wealthsimple Predict is live. The standalone app launched July 29, 2026 on iOS and Android, bringing regulated prediction markets to Canada with around 4,000 Kalshi event contracts on climate, financial markets and economic data. New to Wealthsimple? Grab a $25 welcome bonus with code _Y024Q.
Wealthsimple Predict is a standalone app that brings regulated prediction markets to Canada for the first time. Announced on June 18, 2026, it launched on July 29, 2026 and is now available on the App Store and Google Play. It lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events through a partnership with the US exchange Kalshi, with roughly 4,000 contracts on offer. Below is how the contracts actually work, what it costs, and how to get started.
What Wealthsimple Predict is
A prediction market is a marketplace where you trade contracts tied to whether a specific event will happen. Wealthsimple Predict makes this legal and regulated in Canada by partnering with Kalshi, the US-based exchange that operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Wealthsimple is only the second investment dealer in Canada to receive regulatory approval to offer these contracts, and it ships them in a dedicated app rather than inside the main Wealthsimple app.
Wealthsimple's Chief Product Officer, Brett Huneycutt, framed it as letting traders "turn an opinion into a position" on major economic factors, a way to put money behind your read on inflation, interest rates or markets, rather than just holding stocks.
How event contracts work
Each contract poses a simple yes/no question about a future event and settles to a fixed value:
- If the answer turns out yes, the contract settles at $1.
- If the answer turns out no, it settles at $0.
- While the event is undecided, the contract trades somewhere between $0 and $1, and that price is effectively the market's estimate of the probability.
Example: Say a contract asks, "Will the Bank of Canada hold its policy rate at its next meeting?" If it's trading at $0.62, the market is pricing roughly a 62% chance of a hold. Buy one contract for $0.62: if the Bank holds, it settles at $1.00 (a $0.38 gain); if it cuts or hikes, it settles at $0 (you lose the $0.62). You don't have to wait for settlement, either, if the price climbs to $0.80 as the meeting approaches, you can sell and lock in the difference.
Prices move with information. As new data lands, a jobs report, an inflation print, a weather update, the odds and the contract price re-rate in real time, just like a stock.
What you can trade
Predict lists about 4,000 curated Kalshi contracts, but only in the categories Wealthsimple is authorized to offer in Canada. Crucially, the Canadian framework is narrower than Kalshi's full US menu:
| Category | Available in Canada? | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Economic indicators | Yes | Inflation (CPI), GDP, jobs reports |
| Financial markets | Yes | Interest-rate decisions, index levels |
| Climate & weather | Yes | Temperature, climate data outcomes |
| Sports | No | Not permitted under the approved framework |
| Elections / politics | No | Not permitted under the approved framework |
In short: Predict is built around economic, financial and climate events grounded in verifiable public data, not betting on games or elections. That scope reflects what Canadian regulators were willing to approve.
Fees & funding
Predict is not commission-free the way self-directed trading is. Contracts are priced and settled in US dollars, and Wealthsimple charges a small per-contract fee on both sides of a trade:
- Trading fee: 2 cents US per contract, charged when you buy and again when you sell or settle.
- Contract prices: between 1 cent and 99 cents US, so the fee is a meaningful slice of a cheap contract.
- Funding: fund the account in USD directly, or deposit Canadian dollars and pay Wealthsimple's usual FX rate on the conversion.
The maths matter on low-priced contracts. Buying at 5 cents and selling at 10 cents doubles your money on paper, but the 4 cents of round-trip fees eat most of the gain. Higher-priced contracts and larger moves absorb the cost far better.
Regulation & safeguards
This isn't an offshore betting product. In March 2026, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) approved a framework that classifies event contracts as futures/derivatives, bringing them under the same compliance rules as other listed derivatives. Key points:
- Regulated as futures with a minimum 30-day settlement period on contracts.
- KYC required, you go through the standard Know-Your-Client identity process before trading.
- Mandatory education, before you reach live markets, you must complete modules explaining how event contracts work, how prices map to probabilities, and the real risks.
- Guided first trade, plus risk disclosures and liquidity warnings built into the app.
- Sell anytime, you're not locked in until settlement; positions can be closed when the market is open.
Even with that structure, regulators have publicly flagged that these products carry significant risk and aren't suitable for everyone.
The risks
Prediction contracts are a high-risk, speculative product. A contract that settles at $0 is a total loss of what you paid for it, and prices can swing sharply on a single data release. Treat Predict as money you can afford to lose entirely, not as a substitute for a diversified portfolio or your long-term TFSA and RRSP investing. This page is educational, not financial advice.
A separate app, not the main one
Unlike trading, crypto and Chequing, which all live inside the main Wealthsimple app, Predict is its own standalone download on the App Store and Google Play. Anyone in Canada can install it, including people who have never held a Wealthsimple account. Existing clients sign in with the same credentials they already use, but prediction-market trading stays deliberately separate from everyday investing and banking.
New to Wealthsimple? Open an account first and collect $25 before you trade.
Get $25 with code _Y024QHow to get started
Where things stand today:
- Announced: June 18, 2026.
- Launched: July 29, 2026, live on iOS and Android.
- Partner: Kalshi, with roughly 4,000 contracts available.
- Who can use it: Canadian residents who complete KYC and the required education modules.
If you're already a verified Wealthsimple client, download Predict, sign in, work through the education modules and fund the account. If you're new, sign up on the main platform first so the welcome bonus isn't left on the table:
- Sign up for Wealthsimple with code _Y024Q.
- Open an account such as a TFSA, self-directed or Chequing account and complete identity verification.
- Deposit at least $100 within 30 days to receive your $25.
- Download the Predict app separately and sign in with the same credentials.
New to Wealthsimple? Our step-by-step claim guide walks through the whole process with code _Y024Q.
Predict & the $25 bonus
The $25 welcome bonus is tied to opening and funding an eligible Wealthsimple account as a new client with code _Y024Q, it's separate from prediction-market trading. Sign up, deposit at least $100 within 30 days, and the $25 lands in your Chequing account. Trading on Predict doesn't count toward the deposit requirement, so open and fund a regular account first, then move on to Predict if it interests you.
Predict FAQ
Common questions about Wealthsimple Predict and the $25 bonus.
