Wealthsimple Predict

Wealthsimple Predict is a new standalone app that brings regulated prediction markets to Canada for the first time. Announced on June 18, 2026 and expected to launch in summer 2026, it lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events through a partnership with the US exchange Kalshi, starting with roughly 4,000 contracts. Below is what's confirmed so far, how the contracts actually work, and how to get set up now.

What Wealthsimple Predict is

A prediction market is a marketplace where you trade contracts tied to whether a specific event will happen. Wealthsimple Predict makes this legal and regulated in Canada by partnering with Kalshi, the US-based exchange that operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Wealthsimple is only the second investment dealer in Canada to receive regulatory approval to offer these contracts, and it's launching them in a dedicated app rather than inside the main Wealthsimple app.

Wealthsimple's Chief Product Officer, Brett Huneycutt, framed it as letting traders "turn an opinion into a position" on major economic factors, a way to put money behind your read on inflation, interest rates or markets, rather than just holding stocks.

How event contracts work

Each contract poses a simple yes/no question about a future event and settles to a fixed value:

• If the answer turns out yes, the contract settles at $1.
• If the answer turns out no, it settles at $0.
• While the event is undecided, the contract trades somewhere between $0 and $1, and that price is effectively the market's estimate of the probability.

Example: Say a contract asks, "Will the Bank of Canada hold its policy rate at its next meeting?" If it's trading at $0.62, the market is pricing roughly a 62% chance of a hold. Buy one contract for $0.62: if the Bank holds, it settles at $1.00 (a $0.38 gain); if it cuts or hikes, it settles at $0 (you lose the $0.62). You don't have to wait for settlement, either, if the price climbs to $0.80 as the meeting approaches, you can sell and lock in the difference.

Prices move with information. As new data lands, a jobs report, an inflation print, a weather update, the odds and the contract price re-rate in real time, just like a stock.

What you can trade

Predict launches with about 4,000 curated Kalshi contracts, but only in the categories Wealthsimple is authorized to offer in Canada. Crucially, the Canadian framework is narrower than Kalshi's full US menu:

In short: Predict is built around economic, financial and climate events grounded in verifiable public data, not betting on games or elections. That scope reflects what Canadian regulators were willing to approve.

Regulation & safeguards

This isn't an offshore betting product. In March 2026, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) approved a framework that classifies event contracts as futures/derivatives, bringing them under the same compliance rules as other listed derivatives. Key points:

• Regulated as futures with a minimum 30-day settlement period on contracts.
• KYC required, you go through the standard Know-Your-Client identity process before trading.
• Mandatory education, before you reach live markets, you must complete modules explaining how event contracts work, how prices map to probabilities, and the real risks.
• Guided first trade, plus risk disclosures and liquidity warnings built into the app.
• Sell anytime, you're not locked in until settlement; positions can be closed when the market is open.

Even with that structure, regulators have publicly flagged that these products carry significant risk and aren't suitable for everyone.

The risks

Prediction contracts are a high-risk, speculative product. A contract that settles at $0 is a total loss of what you paid for it, and prices can swing sharply on a single data release. Treat Predict as money you can afford to lose entirely, not as a substitute for a diversified portfolio or your long-term TFSA and RRSP investing. This page is educational, not financial advice.

A separate app, not the main one

Unlike trading, crypto and Cash, which all live inside the main Wealthsimple app, Predict ships as its own standalone app, available to Canadian residents. You'll still sign in as a Wealthsimple client, but prediction-market trading is deliberately kept separate from your everyday investing and banking.

Launch status & how to be ready

Here's the current status, as of this update:

• Announced: June 18, 2026.
• Expected launch: summer 2026 (exact date not yet confirmed, always verify in-app).
• Partner: Kalshi, with ~4,000 contracts at launch.
• Who can use it: Canadian residents who complete KYC and the required education.

The simplest way to be first in line is to already be a verified, funded Wealthsimple client when Predict opens, which also lets you claim the welcome bonus today:

1. Sign up for Wealthsimple with code _Y024Q.
2. Open an account such as a TFSA, self-directed or Cash account and complete identity verification.
3. Deposit at least $100 within 30 days to receive your $25.
4. Watch for the Predict app, and this page, for the launch.

New to Wealthsimple? Our step-by-step claim guide walks through the whole process with code _Y024Q.

Predict & the $25 bonus

The $25 welcome bonus is tied to opening and funding an eligible Wealthsimple account as a new client with code _Y024Q, it's separate from prediction-market trading. Sign up, deposit at least $100 within 30 days, and the $25 lands in your Cash account. Getting set up now means you're ready the moment Predict goes live.

Predict FAQ

Common questions about Wealthsimple Predict and the $25 bonus.

Written by

David Burton

Toronto-based finance writer with an MBA from Queen's University, covering Canadian personal finance for over 15 years. Read more about David →